Transformation archetypes in global food systems

Abstract Food systems are primary drivers of human and environmental health, but the understanding their diverse dynamic co-transformation remains limited. We use a data-driven approach to disentangle different development pathways national food (i.e. ‘transformation archetypes’) based on historical, intertwined trends system structure (agricultural inputs outputs trade), social outcomes (malnutrition, biosphere integrity, greenhouse gases emissions) for 161 countries, from 1995 2015. found that whilst agricultural total factor productivity has consistently increased globally, closer analysis suggests typology three transformation archetypes across countries: rapidly expansionist, consolidative. Expansionist expansionist in area, synthetic fertilizer use, gross output, which was accompanied by malnutrition, pressures, lasting socioeconomic disadvantages. The lowest rates change key metrics were consolidative archetype. Across all archetypes, emissions, ecological footprint consumption faster than expansion obesity levels more undernourishment decreased. persistence these unsustainable trajectories occurred independently improvements productivity. Our results underscore importance quantifying multiple dimensions transformations can serve as starting point identify potential leverage points sustainability transformations. More attention is thus warranted alternative able delivering equitable benefits both health.